From: wbaker@baker.com
Newsgroups: comp.infosystems.www.misc

Subject: Market odds of "Java wins on Internet" at 78 to 82%

Date: 1 Jul 95 09:30:03 GMT
Organization: Alberta Research Council
Message-ID: 

The full description of this claim is as follows:

Sun Microsystems has released Java and HotJava for use by the Internet
community. Java is a new object-oriented programming language developed at
Sun Microsystems to solve a number of problems in modern programming
practice. HotJava is a prototype of a dynamic, extensible World Wide Web
browser that provides the unique feature of "executable content." HotJava
brings interactivity to Web pages and showcases many of the capabilities of
the Java language. The claim is YES if Java (and therefore HotJava) is
ubiquitously available. To be ubiquitously available there must be ports to
the following platforms: Windows 3.x Windows 95 Windows NT MacOS 7.5 OS/2
Solaris 2.X SunOS 4.X DECstation Ultrix DEC Alpha OSF/1 DEC OpenVMS SGI IRIX
HPUX HP-9000/700 88open DG AViiON IBM RS/6000 AIX SCO i386 Intel SVR4
UnixWare Linux BSD (any) For a port to `exist' it must either be available
for downloading off the Internet or for sale with immediate delivery at some
price. The port must be complete as defined by the Java Terms and Conditions
in force at that time.

 The claim pays $0.05 per platform with a $0.10 premium paid for all
platforms.

 Windows 95 only counts in `all platforms' if Windows 95 has shipped by the
judgement date (i.e. WN95=YES) Note: BSD may have Linux-compatibility by the
claim date.


This claim will be judged 960326.

The odds shown in the subject line are the consensus of participants in an
Idea Futures market (the two percentages are the buy and sell prices for
'funny money' bets).  You can learn more about this market by pointing your
world wide web browser to

    http://if.arc.ab.ca/~jamesm/IF/IF.shtml
To participate in the market, a web browser with forms support is mandatory
(e.g., Mosaic2alpha or later, Lynx, NetScape).  Instructions for accessing the
web (including email and plain text browsers) are in the WWW FAQ, posted to
news.answers, and the various comp.infosystems.www groups.

The current odds for all claims on the market are as follows:

comp claims:
     35P6  60 - 69%  .35micron P6
     3SAT  40 - 53%  Good 3SAT Algorithm by 2020
     5500  71 - 99%  5500 Software Patents in 1995
     BOB3  20 - 25%  Bob sells 3,000,000 copies
     Cash  89 - 90%  E-Cash implemented before '97
     Ches  76 - 77%  Machine Chess Champion by 2000
     ChkS  80 - 84%  Checkers solved by 2005
     ChP6  72 - 77%  INTEL P6 cheaper than $1000
     CNTX  79 - 95%  connectix trades on stock mark
     DNA$  21 - 25%  Commercial DNA computer
     DNAT  33 - 34%  DNA-based Turing machine demo
     FacK  40 - 45%  1024bit number factored by '10
     Fact  60 - 70%  512 Bit number factored by '97
     GoCh  37 - 39%  Machine GO Champion by 2020
     GROW  65 - 69%  GROW wins on Internet
     IF~$  56 - 64%  IF Players > 35% Invested
     iNSP  49 - 60%  Native Signal Processing wins
     IReg  69 - 70%  Internet regulated in US
     Java  78 - 82%  Java wins on Internet
     LA25  92 - 98%  LINPACK 25000MFlops 12/31/95
     LA30  88 - 90%  LINPACK 30000MFlops 12/31/95
     LEvr  68 - 92%  LINPACK variable 12/31/99
     MANZ  26 - 70%  Jim Manzi Resigns < 2 years
     NIPC  49 - 70%  Non-Intel PCs Dominate by 2000
     NoKb  61 - 69%  Keyboards replaced by ???
     OS2X  21 - 30%  OS/2 is killed before 1997
     Pt15  15 - 60%  FCC restricts Part 15 devices
     SPat  33 - 35%  New patenting for programs
     SSLW   8 - 12%  SSL wins on Internet
     TcTk  27 - 35%  Tcl/Tk wins on the Internet
     Tran  66 - 67%  Machine Translation by 2015
     UNIX  40 - 42%  UNIX is irrelevant by 2000
     USMS   3 -  8%  U.S. makes DOS/Win Public Stds
     Veri  50 - 98%  Verilog wins in EDA
     VRML  89 - 95%  VRML wins on Internet
     WN95  90 - 94%  Windows 95 ships by 21 Sept 95
sci claims:
     3VDE  70 - 75%  3Var DiophantineEquations 2050
     Astr   9 - 13%  Astrology Stat'ly Significant
     Canc  36 - 40%  Cancer Cured by 2010
     CCx0  70 - 97%  Cosmological Constant > 0.
     CFsn  15 - 17%  Cold Fusion
     Cryo  11 - 20%  Cryonics Catches On by 2000
     Cybo  32 - 40%  Cyborgs by 2035/12/31
     Ferm  96 - 98%  Fermat's Last Theorem resolved
     Fusn  66 - 70%  Operational fusion reactor
     GBch  65 - 74%  Goldbach Conjecture by 2020
     GRBr  48 - 55%  Gamma Ray Bursters are nearby
     Higg  50 - 57%  Higgs particle discovered 2005
     HIVC  48 - 53%  HIV cure by 2005
     HIVV  45 - 53%  HIV Vaccine by 2000
     Huri  68 - 77%  Very large Hurricane in 95
     Immo  21 - 23%  Immortality by 2050
     J9Eq   2 -  3%  Parkfield Quake By July 9th
     MdCd   7 - 30%  More MD's than CD's in 1997.
     Mini   5 - 60%  More Md's in 97 than Cd's
     Moon  46 - 50%  Moonbase by 2025
     Neut  77 - 78%  Neutrino mass >0
     NLud  12 - 18%  Neo-Luddite K. Sale wins bet
     NSF$  34 - 43%  NSF budget is reduced
     PFol  76 - 90%  Protein folding solved by 2010
     Popl  75 - 82%  World population > 10 Billion
     RHyp  65 - 80%  Riemann Hypothesis by 2020
     SGun  35 - 44%  Space gun by 2010
     SLvl  38 - 41%  1 m rise in Sea Level
     Spce  55 - 60%  Private Space Exploitation
     SSTO  59 - 64%  Single Stage to Orbit
     Stew  18 - 22%  Nanotech Stewart platform
     Tach  11 - 17%  Time communication possible.
     Time  11 - 12%  Time Travel
     UFOx  13 - 14%  Existence of UFOs verified
     Univ  29 - 33%  Eventual Collapse of Universe
     Uran  15 - 25%  Stable TransUranic Isotope
     VTRA  35 - 45%  Virtual Travel by 2001
     XLif  41 - 50%  Extraterrestrial Life by 2050
misc claims:
     $vIF  77 - 84%  Real $ Ver. of IF (<1.1.2000)
     1040  28 - 34%  US Taxes unchanged in 2001
     3UPD   1 - 16%  3DO Upgrade Ships by 12/95
     3UPP  14 - 16%  3DO Upgrade less than US$225
     3UPT  51 - 95%  Rumored 3DO Upgrade Specs True
     AHCc  50 - 62%  Alberta cuts clinic funding
     AJCD   0 -  3%  Atari Jaguar CD Ships by 7/95
     Am30   6 - 17%  30 amends. to US Const by 2000
     Amig  23 - 25%  PowerPC based  Amiga by 1/1/97
     APPL  36 - 37%  Apple Computer dies by 2005
     As97  40 - 50%  Assassination attempt by 97
     ATrB  31 - 54%  A New Asian Trade Bloc by 2000
     AusR  83 - 91%  Australian Republic by 2002
     B5S3  99 -100%  Babylon 5 has 3rd Season
     B5S4  91 - 94%  Babylon 5 has 4th Season
     B5S5  83 - 85%  Babylon 5 has 5th season
     BAT4   2 - 20%  BATMAN FOREVER blockbuster hit
     BC96  42 - 43%  Clinton re-elected in 96
     BOOK  80 - 88%  Sports Book in US outside NV
     BOS1  26 - 55%  Bosnian Govt Frees Sarajevo
     Bosn  14 - 18%  Bosnian War ended 1-Jan-96
     CADE  30 - 70%  Big 5 European CAD Vendor
     ccar  51 - 58%  "Zero Emission" Cars not reqrd
     CERT  31 - 39%  U.S.-Certified Encryption Only
     Colt  18 - 22%  Ban on assault weapons lifted
     CPB$  22 - 29%  Public Broadcasting Funds Cut
     CPfP  15 - 20%  Colin Powell runs for Pres.
     CPiP  12 - 40%  UK Conservative in power 7/97
     CrpX  35 - 37%  Strong crypto exportable by 96
     DENG  24 - 25%  Death of Deng triggers revolt
     DOCX  57 - 58%  U.S. Commerce Dept abolished
     dole  32 - 33%  Dole beats Clinton for Pres
     Epdm  30 - 34%  Deadly Epidemic in G7/EC
     FCCX  22 - 31%  FCC is disbanded
     FSTX   9 - 10%  Fed sales intead of income tax
     Ging  24 - 27%  Gingrich enters Prez race
     Hank   1 -  3%  Foster becomes Surgeon Genl
     HEAD  49 - 51%  coin toss comes up heads
     HOFF   2 - 67%  Mark Hoffman resigns
     Infl  22 - 29%  Inflation 2010/1995 >= 4.0
     ISDN  56 - 60%  25% Telephones ISDN by 2000
     Jack  20 - 25%  Jackson/Presley divorce
     Jl12  49 - 59%  13 OJ jurors dismissed
     JMGn  49 - 68%  John Major out by 1/1/96
     KNSU   5 -  7%  North and South Korea Unify
     MacC  61 - 65%  Mac clone sales> Macs by 7/97
     MLAW  17 - 18%  Minimalist Legal System wins
     Ms.P  45 - 49%  Woman President by 2013
     Naf2  30 - 45%  NaftaPlus signed by Clinton
     Nipl  86 - 90%  Nudity on Network TV by 1999
     NoPW  46 - 70%  Pete Wilson out by 5/1/96
     NS2X  75 - 78%  Netscape doubles on first day
     OJdt  11 - 95%  (OJ trial end - 95.7.1)/200
     OJgt  43 - 44%  O.J Simpson found Guilty
     OJMT  56 - 58%  Mistrial or hung jury for OJ
     OKbr  95 - 98%  Oklahoma Bomber a U.S. Citizen
     omca   2 - 10%  Ovitz hired to head MCA
     Pete  15 - 16%  PETE WILSON Republican Nominee
     PGPX  28 - 34%  Zimmermann tried on PGP export
     PicF  80 - 83%  Residential Videophones 2005
     pmin  34 - 38%  Prez w/o majority on 2/1/97
     Poc1  20 - 24%  Pocahontas #1 US Summer Film
     Quak  72 - 73%  Big West Coast Quake by 2010
     QueS   5 -  9%  Quebec separation
     road  40 - 99%  Fed Roadway Funds cut by 2005
     Rsgn   6 -  7%  Clinton resigns or impeached
     SShX  26 - 38%  Shuttle disaster by 1/1/2000
     SSma  49 - 55%  Same-sex marriages legal in US
     surg  70 - 75%  unnatural cosmetic surgery
     SWIV  17 - 22%  Star Wars movie 4 by 1997
     TBnp  48 - 49%  Tony Blair next British PM
     TBOT  21 - 28%  Economical Beverage Robot.
     Terr  46 - 55%  Nuke capable Terrorists
     TrCm  61 - 62%  Chemical/bio terrorist attack
     TVCD  44 - 49%  Sony/Philips CD videodisk wins
     U64D   2 -  8%  Ultra 64 Ships By 12/95
     U64P  75 - 88%  Ultra 64 less than US$280
     U64T  75 - 90%  Rumored Ultra 64 Specs True
     UKCO  79 - 99%  Local Internet in UK by 1997
     UNAA   2 -  5%  Unabomber gets bomb on plane
     UnaB  35 - 39%  "Unabomber" caught by 6/1/96
     WELD   4 - 10%  Bill Weld - Next Attorney Gen.

Full descriptions and conditions of these claims are available at

    http://if.arc.ab.ca/~jamesm/IF/allclaims.shtml
This message is automatically posted to this newsgroup on a monthly basis
as specified by the owner of the claim:  wbaker@baker.com